Opis
„The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs” jest anglojęzycznym kwartalnikiem Instytutu poruszającym i analizującym kwestie istotne dla Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej. Stanowi forum debat nad współczesnymi wydarzeniami międzynarodowymi. Każde wydanie zawiera zbiór autorskich artykułów poddanych ocenie peer review, a także recenzje specjalistycznych publikacji. The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs is the Institute’s English language journal and has a Central and Eastern European focus. It provides a forum for the analysis and debate of international affairs through a collection of original, peer reviewed articles on a contemporary theme. Spis treściArticles Sebastian Płóciennik Recovery of the Eurozone and a New Dynamic in European Integration: Implications for Member States outside the Monetary Union (s. 7) In the last few years, the division of the EU between Member States inside and outside the eurozone has begun to stabilise. Those that intended to adopt the single currency as early as possible have done so and the others either did not wish to join the eurozone or could not do so quickly. This stability was supported by several factors, in particular the economic weakness of the eurozone, the relatively high political and economic weight of countries on the outside (which guaranteed) their influence in the EU, and the general stagnation of EU integration processes. However, it is becoming clear that by 2017, these factors are becoming less influential, which may translate into a change in the relationship between Member States inside the eurozone and those outside. Neither a new enlargement dynamic of the single currency area nor a deepening of divisions in the EU can be ruled out. Wojciech Lorenz The Evolution of Deterrence: From Cold War to Hybrid War (s. 22) The theoretical foundations of the deterrence concept were developed during the Cold War and used by the U.S. and NATO to reduce the risk of military confrontation with the USSR. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the 11 September terrorist attacks, the U.S changed its deterrence policy. Although Russia’s aggressive policy forced NATO to reinstate deterrence, it will be supported by other forms of influence to limit the risk of confrontation in Europe. Hubert Świętek The Yemen War: A Proxy War, or a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? (s. 38) In recent years, Yemen has become an arena of strategic competition between Middle Eastern regional powers. As is the case with many other regional conflicts, the Yemen war is considered in the context of major international politics and great-power rivalry. Contrary to appearances, however, this is not a proxy war waged by Iran, one that the great rival of Teheran—Saudi Arabia—must, for the sake of its own security interests, oppose. On the contrary, Riyadh is a major player in the conflict, pursuing its own imperial interests. But its strategy has thus far been unsuccessful, prolonging the conflict and resulting in the devastation of Yemen and a humanitarian disaster. This can boost the role of terrorist organisations on a scale comparable to what we are witnessing in Syria and Iraq, creating a real threat to international security. Bartosz Wiśniewski The Three Seas Initiative after the Warsaw Summit: What Next? (s. 55) The Warsaw TSI summit was a political success, thanks in no small part to the participation of U.S. President Donald Trump. The TSI has thus been endowed with a much needed—and generally unexpected—gravitas. However, Trump’s endorsement of the Initiative should not come across as entirely unexpected. On the contrary, it is possible to track this support to the fundamentals of U.S. foreign policy strategy towards the CEE in the post-Cold War era. As for the TSI itself, it still faces a number of challenges, such as defining the role of key stakeholders, coming up with a viable list of deliverables, and calibrating its relationship with other regional cooperation mechanisms. Oana Popescu Romania: A Latecomer Who Wants to Get in the Game (s. 65) Romania will host the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) summit in 2018. After the launch of the initiative in Croatia in 2016 and the new energy injected into it, not least through U.S. endorsement, in Warsaw this year, the main question to answer in Bucharest in 2018 is if we can now put some meat on the bones. Martin Ehl The Three Seas Initiative through Czech Eyes: Unconvinced by Their Neighbour’s Plans (s. 76) At a time when the European Union needs strong leadership, when many of its policies are in desperate need of overhaul, and when the Visegrad Four group has won recognition as an important player, the Three Seas Initiative dissipates the energy, skills and attention of Central and Eastern European countries that could otherwise be directed to questions of the region’s vital interests. From the Czech perspective, the TSI weakens CEE regional influence in the EU, while Poland’s insistence that it has U.S.